Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products
A Financial-Economics Approach to Forecasting
10-Day Training Course
Course Overview
A critical component of decision-making in the energy industry deals with the aspect of “Whither oil prices?”: Where do we expect prices to move in the near- and distant-terms? Participants in the Energy Industry are constantly confronted with a wide range of information regarding current and prospective prices in their industry. Broadly, this data comes from analyses of supply-and-demand changes, geopolitical events and the financial markets, including the commodity markets.
While providing the requisite background on the economics of financial commodity markets, as well as the statistical tools required to understand them, this training course demonstrates how the financial and commodity markets provide useful information for the generation of “expected prices”, or forecast prices, in the critical areas of oil, natural-gas and refined products. In so doing, the course will also demonstrate the important distinction between valuation and risk / return analysis.
This Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course will develop an understanding of pricing, risk management, asset valuation and derivatives within the energy markets:
- Learn to use financial models to analyze and forecast energy prices; extrapolate forward prices beyond the liquidity tenor
- Understand the risk of and return from futures and options contracts on energy commodities
- Manage and optimize your organization’s energy risk exposure
- Learn to estimate and calculate volatility in energy prices
- Utilize real options theory to value energy assets; use information from futures / option prices to make optimal production decisions: Optimal timing for extraction, optimal rate at which to extract oil (gas) from a field; value oil fields, pipelines and storage facilities, power plants
Course Objectives
The objectives of this Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course are to provide a comprehensive introduction to the computation and application of forecast prices in the energy industry, with a focus on the oil, natural-gas and refined products segments. Inter alia, the course presents the basic statistical tools required to operationalize these concepts.
At the end of this Energy Training Centre training course, participants will learn to:
- Use financial models to analyze and forecast energy prices; extrapolate forward prices beyond the liquidity tenor
- Understand the risk of and return from futures and options contracts on energy commodities
- Manage and optimize their corporations’ energy risk exposure
- Estimate expected returns and calculate volatility in energy prices
- Obtain a comprehensive understanding of the financial-economics techniques used to forecast prices
- Apply option valuation techniques to the energy markets
- Utilize real options theory to value energy assets; use information from futures / option prices to make optimal production decisions: Optimal timing for extraction, optimal rate at which to extract oil (gas) from a field; value oil fields, pipelines and storage facilities, power plants
Training Methodology
This training course will be presented through a combination of following methodologies:
- Clear presentation of notes with the requisite supportive analytics
- Detailed presentation of the relevant empirical regularities / stylized facts of the energy markets
- Presentation of several case studies designed to exemplify the application of risk-management and valuation principles
- Interspersed in the lectures are relevant problem-sets, designed to afford participants with the opportunity to apply the principles conveyed and see their implementation
- Dissemination to and sharing with participants critical spreadsheets that will permit them to address issues within the course, as well as utilize these concepts
Who Should Attend
This Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit individuals working in financial analysis, valuation, trading, risk management or quantitative analysis positions with oil and gas exploration companies; investment and commercial banking, consulting, and financial services firms in the energy sector; production and distribution companies; energy trading firms; and corporations outside the energy industry with a significant cost exposure to energy prices.
In terms of job titles, these individuals include:
- Financial Analysts
- Quantitative Analysts or Researchers
- Energy Traders
- Risk Managers
- Commercial and Investment Bankers dealing with Commodities
- Consultants in the Commodity Arena
- Government and Regulatory Officials with responsibilities for the Energy Sector
Course Curriculum
- Measuring Nervousness / Uncertainty of Equity and Commodity Markets
- The Crude-Oil Markets: Level and Slope of Crude-Oil Futures Markets; Impact of Economic, Financial and Geopolitical Events on Implied Volatilities in the Crude-Oil Market
- Impact of Seasonality on Global NatGas Markets
- Future Inflation Rates
- The Refining Spread and Retail Gasoline Prices
- The Domestic NatGas Market: The Impact of Seasonality
- The March / April 2007 Futures Contract
- Financial Markets’ “Message from Markets”; Interpret bond-market moves in conjunction with those in equity markets
- Empirical Regularities of Global Fixed Income Markets
- Understanding the Fundamentals of Bond Valuation
- Eurodollar Futures and Interest Rate Swaps
- Duration and Convexity: Hedging Interest Rate Exposure
- Interest-Rate Volatility
- Forecasting Future Interest Rates Using
- A Financial-economics Approach
- Practitioners' Approaches
- Basic Statistical Concepts: Average and Volatility; Stationarity of Time Variables
- Regression Analysis
- Using Solver to Solve Constrained Optimization Problems
- Fundamentals of Forwards and Futures Contracts: Definition, Payoff Diagram, Pricing by Arbitrage
- Forward / Futures Prices and Forecast Prices
- Commodity Swaps
- The Key Difference between Real-Asset Valuation and Expected Value
- Payoffs and Put-Call Parity
- Black-Scholes Formula
- Option “Sensitivities” (the “Greeks”): Delta and Gamma
- The Binomial Model and the Valuation of American-Style Options
- Real Options in Energy Markets: Power Plants as a Strip of Spark Spread Options; Oil Fields as the Valuation of an Extraction Option
- Historical Volatility: The Term Structure of Volatility (TSOV)
- Estimating Volatility from Market Prices of Options in Energy Markets
- Historical or Implied Vols?
- Estimating a Mean-Reverting Process
- Characterizing the Volatility “Surface” Across Time and Strike
- Jump-Diffusion Process
- The Need to Extrapolate in Energy Finance: Valuation of Long-Dated Real Assets and Financial Structured Products; Extrapolating Crude-Oil Prices; Extrapolating Natural-Gas Prices; Extrapolating the Term Structure of Volatilities (TSOV); Extrapolating Correlations
- The “Market Price of Risk”: Estimating a Risk Premium in Finance, and Applying it to Energy Prices
- How Can Use Regression Analysis to Fortify Our Understanding of Financial Markets’ Perspective on Forecast Prices?
- Where Can We Observe Forecast Prices?
- What is the Difference between Futures Prices and Forecast Prices?
- What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and How Can We Use it to Forecast Oil Prices?
- Applying a Jump-Diffusion Model to Oil Futures Options
- Using the Market Price of Risk to Implement Risk-Management from a Corporate Perspective
- Commercial Structured Products
- Categorizing Derivative Products: Option Collars, Average Options, Spread Options, Swing Options, Weather Derivatives, Commodity-linked Bonds; “Swing” Options; Weather Derivatives
- Structuring and Valuing Option Collars
- Structuring and Valuing Average (Asian) Options
- Example of Calibration: Using Vanilla Options to Determine the Value of Volatility for Valuation of Average Options
- Non-Commercial Structured Products
Certificates Awarded
Certificate of Completion
After successfully completing this training course, participants will be awarded The Energy Training Centre Certificate of Completion — a respected validation of their dedication to continuous learning and professional excellence. This certificate signifies that participants have gained the essential knowledge and skills required to make a measurable impact in their field.
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Frequently Asked Questions
Our training courses are conducted at partnered hotels located within the specified training areas. Please note that venue assignments may vary based on availability. For the most current information, do not hesitate to contact us at [email protected].
Yes, we do. We provide tailored training courses designed to meet the specific requirement of larger group of individuals. These customized training courses can be conducted both classroom and online formats, allowing you the flexibility to choose you preferred dates and duration.
Please contact us at [email protected] to discuss your group’s training needs, and we’ll work with you to create a personalized training course that aligns with your objectives.
Upon successful completion of the training course, you will receive The Energy Training Centre Certificate of Completion with corresponding learning hours.
Yes, special discounts are available upon request if you have more than one registrant for a course. For further information please email us at [email protected]
We offer two convenient payment options:
- Bank Transfer – You can make payment via bank transfer. Once your registration is confirmed, you will receive an invoice with the banking details for the transfer. We would require you to supply a swift copy for us to confirm receipt of funds.
- Payment Link – Alternatively, we provide a secure payment link that you can use to complete your payment after your registration has been confirmed.
Upon receiving your registration details, either via email at [email protected] or through our online registration form, we will send you the following by email within 24-48 hours of registration.
- Joining Instructions
- Invoice/receipt (where appropriate)
There are two convenient options to register for a training course:
- Online Registration Form – Register for your desired training course by completing the online registration form available on our website. Simple click on the registration button or select your preferred dates and provide the requested information.
- Email Registration – You can email us your intention to register at [email protected]. Our team will guide you through the registration process and provide assistance you may need.
We understand that time zones may be different between our Senior Consultants and our delegates. Our standard online course timings (11:00 AM to 4:00 PM, GMT+4 – Dubai, UAE) may be adjusted upon confirming the programme. Our team shall communicate between the confirmed registered delegates and suggest a suitable course timing for all.
Our standard course duration for our classroom programmes is 6 hours per day while our online session is 5 hours per day.
Our training courses span across diverse industries, encompassing sectors such as but not limited to:
- Power & Utilities
- Oil & Gas
- Financial Institutions
- Government and Regulatory bodies
- Manufacturing & Production Industry
Our commitment lies in continuously refining and expanding our training course offerings to align with evolving industry landscapes. We encourage individuals to explore our website or engage with our dedicated support team for the latest information on available courses, ensuring access to the most pertinent and current educational resources.
Yes, The Energy Training Centre is certified and recognized by several prominent industry standards. Specifically, it holds certifications from ILM, Continuing Professional Development (CPD), and the Project Management Institute (PMI).
- ILM (ID# 002398B) – This certification indicates that our training programmes meet high standards for leadership and management development, ensuring that they are designed to enhance participants’ skills in these critical areas.
- Continuing Professional Development (CPD) – Our recognition by CPD reflects our commitment to providing educational opportunities that support ongoing professional growth and skill enhancement. This accreditation ensures that our training courses are relevant and effective for professionals seeking to advance their careers.
- Project Management Institute (PMI) – Being recognized by PMI signifies that our training programmes align with industry best practices in project management. This certification assures participants that our offerings are in line with the standards required for effective project management and are valuable for those pursuing or maintaining PMI credentials.
These certifications underscore our dedication to providing high-quality, industry-relevant training that fosters professional growth and meets established standards. Additionally, we are actively pursuing further certifications and affiliations to enhance our offerings and ensure we remain at the forefront of industry best practices.
About Energy Training Centre
Energy Training Centre is a leading provider of professional development programs for the energy and public sectors. With over 15 years of experience, we have trained more than 50,000 professionals across the Middle East and beyond.
Our expert-led courses are designed to meet the evolving needs of modern organizations, combining theoretical knowledge with practical applications that deliver immediate value to your career and organization.
50K+
Professionals Trained
15+
Years of Experience
What Our Delegates Say
Real feedback from professionals who completed this course
Our instructor was very knowledgeable and passionate about the topic. She kept us very engaged.
The instructor has an amazing way of delivering the topic to those without a specialist background.
This training course gave me a more and bigger perspective about design thinking how to implement it and improve my personal and professional life. It is a privilege to be taught by our Senior Consultant.
This was the best instructor I have met in these (Oil & Gas) trainings.
Amazing sessions with the Senior Consultant. Truly insightful and a week well spent getting new knowledge.
The presentation and delivery was excellently done. I was able to understand the basics of trading beyond my expectation. This is solely due to the good teaching method of the Senior Consultant.
The Senior Consultant did an excellent job in presenting the material and bringing real life case studies and examples during the classroom discussion.
This was a beneficial training course, and I was glad to receive a lot of valuable information.
This was really an amazing training course and I learned everything to enhance our system.
The Energy Training Centre Senior Consultant has excellent knowledge of the subject area. His teaching methods made the concept of ORM easy to understand and follow. Overall, excellent training course.
This training course had a very good introduction into operational risk management.
I enjoyed this training course with the guidance of The Energy Training Centre Senior Consultant. He has excellent skills in delivering and presenting the training course and very knowledgeable about the subject. He supports by answering any questions and links it to practice. Additionally, he provides examples to explain and clarify as well as simplify the subject. I would really recommend attending this training course.
The Power System Protection training course was very informative and the facilitator has a great wealth of experience in this area which made the explanations very easy to understand. He runs through the basics and breaks down the complex parts of the power protection systems. It was a rewarding engagement signing up for this training course.
Great and very rich training course content. The instructor was very professional and has great experience in pipeline.
The training course has provided very good illustrations for the topics discussed. The sessions were filled with energy and exciting lectures. I now have a better understanding of contacts through educational sessions, especially in our breakout sessions on contract negotiations. Overall, this has been one of my best training courses so far. Well done!
The Energy Training Centre's senior consultant has rich experience about the Oil & Gas industry which helped us. Sessions were very useful. Thanks a lot for for sharing valuable information.
The refining operations sessions were highly practical and relevant to the Nigerian context. They were very thought-provoking, highlighting what is needed to make petrochemical plants successful in Nigeria and deliver greater value.
The training course is well taught and structured. The knowledge, exposure and solutions are insightful in advising and helping the company and country to diversify the economy.
Highly valuable content and engaging delivery.
Very good training course and excellent presenter.
Great delivery, great facilitator, carried everyone along and always ensured delegates understand the topics taught.
The practical exercises were important to improve learning.
Very great and useful training course.
The training course was very valuable and fruitful. The Senior Consultant was really an amazing instructor.
Great training course. Great instructor and training location.
This is a great and excellent training. Thank you to the instructor for the well-delivered lectures.
Excellent training! Very professional and knowledgeable instructor. Everything was clear and presented in a very clear and interesting way. It has been a really great experience and the training course was delivered in a relaxing and nice environment.
The training course was really great, and I gained a lot of valuable information from the Energy Training Centre instructor. The training course content was enriching and enjoyable. Thank you all.
The Energy Training Centre's Senior Consultant comes with a wealth of knowledge!
The training course is amazing in all aspects, material wise and even time distribution. I wish everyone to go through this training course.
I try to not exaggerate my ratings, but this has really been an exceptional training course. Should be marketed towards senior leaders and executives in EGA.
Great presentation and material.
Very useful day. Good instructor and professional presentation. The facilitator was fantastic and on top of the job. His delivery was on point.
Had a lot of workshop activities and this made the training more practical and interesting. I really enjoyed the training. He gave more practical workshop demonstrations, on worksite safety practices (IOSH) and power generation processes. Very useful exercises. Additional knowledge acquired and very useful training. He is the perfect instructor.
The course and instructor were very informative and this will greatly help me in my job
Very good course and very interesting
The presenter is amazing, he knows how to keep the audience engaged and his information of the topic is excellent.
Very good course and very informative. The integration between energy, politics & economics well explained.
I really enjoyed this course, it was extremely benefiting. Moreover, we had a great instructor and an amazing teacher. To be honest, this is the best training I have ever attended.
The course provided significant insight to energy contracts.
The presenter understands us and has in depth knowledge of the topic and he chose the most appropriate examples to demonstrate it.
The programme has equipped me with the necessary tools to develop our interventions in the capacitation of energy markets and pricing regimes. Objectives met.
Today's session was an interesting and very useful introduction to the modules in production practices. Energy Training Centre Instructor taught in a lucid, chronological and helpful way. Looking forward to tomorrow’s session.
I was in a relax mood & environment. I am very much satisfied with this course. Well done Energy Training! I enjoyed every moment of this course, it was interactive in nature and we had an easy discussion.
The course was very fruitful and valuable to improve our leadership skills, in both life and work aspects. The instructor had significant positive influence to add up lots of great insights to this course subject.
The course is educative and has exposed me to the new trend in power system.
The consultant is knowledgeable and intelligent. The course material is also well written for easy understanding, also used a lot of practical example to deliver his point.
Learnt a lot today, especially the discussion on environmental and social impact.
I wish the training wouldn’t end because the trainer was very knowledgeable. I can’t wait to go back to my workplace and implement what I’ve learned.
The training program was well organized and executed. Energy Training’s willingness to assist us with any of our concerns was awesome. Great job!
The training is quite informative and interactive. Also, the venue is very conducive for learning.
Brilliant course and intelligent consultant.
The training was really perfect and informative as we gained a lot of new informations related to my field and work environment. Thanks a lot to the instructor for the efforts and skills which passed to us as well as special thanks to the coordinator which is really supportive and spent most of her time to be friendly & helpful. Very good course and orgnization. Well done!
The instructor is best lecturer and presenter. I was learning everyday and we shared our experiences so thank you very much Energy Training. I will encourage my colleagues to participate in future seminars organized by Energy Training and suggest it to anyone who are in search of training/seminar.
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