Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

An Interactive 10 - Day Training Course

Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products

A Financial-Economics Approach to Forecasting

Classroom Dates
03 - 14 Jun 2024
02 - 13 Sep 2024
11 - 22 Nov 2024
31 Mar - 11 Apr 2025
Online Dates
02 - 13 Sep 2024

A critical component of decision-making in the energy industry deals with the aspect of “Whither oil prices?”:  Where do we expect prices to move in the near- and distant-terms?  Participants in the Energy Industry are constantly confronted with a wide range of information regarding current and prospective prices in their industry.  Broadly, this data comes from analyses of supply-and-demand changes, geopolitical events and the financial markets, including the commodity markets.

While providing the requisite background on the economics of financial commodity markets, as well as the statistical tools required to understand them, this training course demonstrates how the financial and commodity markets provide useful information for the generation of “expected prices”, or forecast prices, in the critical areas of oil, natural-gas and refined products.  In so doing, the course will also demonstrate the important distinction between valuation and risk / return analysis.

This Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course will develop an understanding of pricing, risk management, asset valuation and derivatives within the energy markets:

  • Learn to use financial models to analyze and forecast energy prices; extrapolate forward prices beyond the liquidity tenor
  • Understand the risk of and return from futures and options contracts on energy commodities
  • Manage and optimize your organization’s energy risk exposure
  • Learn to estimate and calculate volatility in energy prices
  • Utilize real options theory to value energy assets; use information from futures / option prices to make optimal production decisions: Optimal timing for extraction, optimal rate at which to extract oil (gas) from a field; value oil fields, pipelines and storage facilities, power plants

The objectives of this Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course are to provide a comprehensive introduction to the computation and application of forecast prices in the energy industry, with a focus on the oil, natural-gas and refined products segments. Inter alia, the course presents the basic statistical tools required to operationalize these concepts.

At the end of this Energy Training Centre training course, participants will learn to:

  • Use financial models to analyze and forecast energy prices; extrapolate forward prices beyond the liquidity tenor
  • Understand the risk of and return from futures and options contracts on energy commodities
  • Manage and optimize their corporations’ energy risk exposure
  • Estimate expected returns and calculate volatility in energy prices
  • Obtain a comprehensive understanding of the financial-economics techniques used to forecast prices
  • Apply option valuation techniques to the energy markets
  • Utilize real options theory to value energy assets; use information from futures / option prices to make optimal production decisions: Optimal timing for extraction, optimal rate at which to extract oil (gas) from a field; value oil fields, pipelines and storage facilities, power plants

This training course will be presented through a combination of following methodologies:

  • Clear presentation of notes with the requisite supportive analytics
  • Detailed presentation of the relevant empirical regularities / stylized facts of the energy markets
  • Presentation of several case studies designed to exemplify the application of risk-management and valuation principles
  • Interspersed in the lectures are relevant problem-sets, designed to afford participants with the opportunity to apply the principles conveyed and see their implementation
  • Dissemination to and sharing with participants critical spreadsheets that will permit them to address issues within the course, as well as utilize these concepts 

From the perspective of the organization, this Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course conveys to critical personnel the:

  • Computation and correct uses of price forecasts applicable to the energy industry
  • Application of concepts on risk and return on energy commodities
  • Manage and optimize their corporations’ energy risk exposure
  • Apply option valuation techniques to the energy markets
  • Understanding of the key elements of information conveyed by financial markets, and how to apply these to make better business decisions

As a means of preparing individuals for the higher managerial rungs in their organization, the skills acquired in this training course include understanding the:

  • Main terminology used in the industry
  • Role of financial markets as efficient conveyors of information and assessors of risk
  • Valuation and role of futures contracts and swap agreements
  • Principles of option and derivative-claim valuation, hedging and uses
  • Necessary tools of financial-economics and statistics to forecast near and distant prices for oil, natural-gas and refined products
  • Means to utilize price forecasts to make better business decisions

This Forecasting the Prices of Crude-Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products training course is suitable to a wide range of professionals but will greatly benefit individuals working in financial analysis, valuation, trading, risk management or quantitative analysis positions with oil and gas exploration companies; investment and commercial banking, consulting, and financial services firms in the energy sector; production and distribution companies; energy trading firms; and corporations outside the energy industry with a significant cost exposure to energy prices.

In terms of job titles, these individuals include:

  • Financial Analysts
  • Quantitative Analysts or Researchers
  • Energy Traders
  • Risk Managers
  • Commercial and Investment Bankers dealing with Commodities
  • Consultants in the Commodity Arena
  • Government and Regulatory Officials with responsibilities for the Energy Sector

Day One: The Current State of the Equity & Commodity Markets

  • Measuring Nervousness / Uncertainty of Equity and Commodity Markets
  • The Crude-Oil Markets: Level and Slope of Crude-Oil Futures Markets; Impact of Economic, Financial and Geopolitical Events on Implied Volatilities in the Crude-Oil Market
  • Impact of Seasonality on Global NatGas Markets
  • Future Inflation Rates
  • The Refining Spread and Retail Gasoline Prices
  • The Domestic NatGas Market: The Impact of Seasonality
  • The March / April 2007 Futures Contract

Day Two: A Primer on the Interest-Rate Markets 

  • Financial Markets’ “Message from Markets”; Interpret bond-market moves in conjunction with those in equity markets
  • Empirical Regularities of Global Fixed Income Markets
  • Understanding the Fundamentals of Bond Valuation
  • Eurodollar Futures and Interest Rate Swaps
  • Duration and Convexity: Hedging Interest Rate Exposure
  • Interest-Rate Volatility
  • Forecasting Future Interest Rates Using
    • A Financial-economics Approach
    • Practitioners' Approaches

Day Three: Overview of Statistical Concepts 

  • Basic Statistical Concepts: Average and Volatility; Stationarity of Time Variables
  • Regression Analysis
  • Using Solver to Solve Constrained Optimization Problems

Day Four: Forward, Futures and Swap Contracts in Energy Markets

  • Fundamentals of Forwards and Futures Contracts: Definition, Payoff Diagram, Pricing by Arbitrage
  • Forward / Futures Prices and Forecast Prices
  • Commodity Swaps
  • The Key Difference between Real-Asset Valuation and Expected Value

Day Five and Day Six: Part I:  Option Pricing 

  • Payoffs and Put-Call Parity
  • Black-Scholes Formula
  • Option “Sensitivities” (the “Greeks”): Delta and Gamma
  • The Binomial Model and the Valuation of American-Style Options
  • Real Options in Energy Markets: Power Plants as a Strip of Spark Spread Options; Oil Fields as the Valuation of an Extraction Option

Day Six: Part II and Day Seven: Part I: The Statistics of the Price Processes in Energy Markets 

  • Historical Volatility: The Term Structure of Volatility (TSOV)
  • Estimating Volatility from Market Prices of Options in Energy Markets
  • Historical or Implied Vols?
  • Estimating a Mean-Reverting Process
  • Characterizing the Volatility “Surface” Across Time and Strike
  • Jump-Diffusion Process
  • The Need to Extrapolate in Energy Finance: Valuation of Long-Dated Real Assets and Financial Structured Products; Extrapolating Crude-Oil Prices; Extrapolating Natural-Gas Prices; Extrapolating the Term Structure of Volatilities (TSOV); Extrapolating Correlations

Day Seven: Part II and Day Eight: Forecasting the Prices of Oil, Natural-Gas and Refined Products 

  • The “Market Price of Risk”: Estimating a Risk Premium in Finance, and Applying it to Energy Prices
  • How Can Use Regression Analysis to Fortify Our Understanding of Financial Markets’ Perspective on Forecast Prices?
  • Where Can We Observe Forecast Prices?
  • What is the Difference between Futures Prices and Forecast Prices?
  • What is the Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) and How Can We Use it to Forecast Oil Prices?
  • Applying a Jump-Diffusion Model to Oil Futures Options
  • Using the Market Price of Risk to Implement Risk-Management from a Corporate Perspective

Day Nine and Day Ten: Energy Derivative Products:  The Role of Structuring, Calibration, Valuation and Hedging in Profitable Market-Making 

  • Commercial Structured Products
  • Categorizing Derivative Products: Option Collars, Average Options, Spread Options, Swing Options, Weather Derivatives, Commodity-linked Bonds; “Swing” Options; Weather Derivatives
  • Structuring and Valuing Option Collars
  • Structuring and Valuing Average (Asian) Options
  • Example of Calibration:  Using Vanilla Options to Determine the Value of Volatility for Valuation of Average Options
  • Non-Commercial Structured Products

We offer two main training formats to cater to different preferences and needs: 

  • Classroom Training Delivery – Our traditional classroom-based training courses provide a face-to-face learning experience with subject matter experts. You’ll benefit form in-person interactions, hands-on exercises, and a structured classroom environment.
  • Online Training Delivery – We also offer convenient live/online training courses that you can access from anywhere with a stable internet connection. These courses provided flexibility and allow you to learn anywhere, making them suitable for busy schedules or remote learning.

The Energy Training Centre Certificate of Completion with corresponding learning hours who has successfully completed the training course.

Yes, we provide assistance by issuing a Letter of Invitation stating that you are confirmed to attend our training.

We value transparency and are happy to provide our instructor’s profiles upon request. If you would like to learn more about our instructor’s’ qualifications, expertise, and experiences, please email us at

Yes, we do. We provide tailored training courses designed to meet the specific requirement of larger group of individuals. These customized training courses can be conducted both classroom and online formats, allowing you the flexibility to choose you preferred dates and duration.

Please contact us at to discuss your group’s training needs, and we’ll work with you to create a personalized training course that aligns with your objectives.

We have multiple international training venues. You may find this through our website link: 

Our training courses are held at our partnered hotels within the city included within our training

Yes, here are the following options we can offer to assist you:

  • Corporate Discount – We can extend our corporate discount to participants staying at the same hotel, if we have any. Please enquire about the availability of this discount when you register for the training course.
  • Nearby Hotel Suggestions – If you prefer other accommodations, we can provide a list of nearby hotels to suit your needs and budget.

Feel free to go through hotel booking platforms on the internet to find the most cost-effective for you.

No, we do not provide job placement services after the training course. However, we are confident that our training course equips you with the necessary tools and knowledge to enhance you career prospects and promote career growth. Our training course are designed to empower you with valuable skills and expertise to excel in your chosen field.

  • Tuition fee for a 5-day training course
  • Provision of a world-class subject matter expert to deliver this training
  • Meeting at a hotel venue corresponding to your chosen session
  • Welcome food and drinks, AM / PM snack, and Lunch
  • Digital course materials (e-Tablet)
  • Course completion certificates
  • Designing and administration of Pre-& Post Course Assessments
  • Preparation of participant’s Performance and Appraisal Report, if required
  • Issuance of Letter of Invitation for delegates needed visa processing, if required
  • Tuition fee for a 5-day online training course
  • Provision of a world-class subject matter expert to deliver this training through live/virtual delivery
  • An electronic copy of the training manual and relevant hand-outs
  • Issuance of The Energy Training Centre e-Certificate of Completion
  • Administration of Pre-& Post Workshop Assessments
  • Link access of online platform acceptable to both parties

Certainly, we do provide corporate rates tailored for organizations seeking to enrol multiple employees in our training programs. To facilitate this, we encourage you to make a formal request via email addressed to We’ll be delighted to discuss and offer a suitable arrangement for your corporate needs.

Yes, special discounts are available upon request if you have more than one registrant for a course. For further information please email us at

We offer two convenient payment options:

  • Bank Transfer – You can make payment via bank transfer. Once your registration is confirmed, you will receive an invoice with the banking details for the transfer. We would require you to supply a swift copy for us to confirm receipt of funds.
  • Payment Link – Alternatively, we provide a secure payment link that you can use to complete your payment after your registration has been confirmed.

Upon receipt of your registration details sent via email at, we will send you the following by e-mail within 24-48 hours of registration.

  • Joining Instructions
  • Invoice/receipt (where appropriate)

 If you register online, you will receive an e-mail on the same day confirming your registration.

There are two convenient options to register for a training course:

  • Online Registration Form – Register for your desired training course by completing the online registration form available on our website. Simple click on the registration button or select your preferred dates and provide the requested information.
  • Email Registration – You can email us your intention to register at Our team will guide you through the registration process and provide assistance you may need.

Yes, we do allow registration transfers in the event that you are unable to attend the training course. To initiate a transfer, please send us an official email requesting the change. We’ll guide you through the transfer process and ensure a smooth transition of your registration to another eligible participant.

Our training course sessions are scheduled and posted on our website for your convenience. However, we understand that there may be specific requirement for your group. If you have a preferred venue and specific training dates in mind, please feel free to propose them to us by clicking on the button “Propose you preferred location & date” of your preferred training course.

Our course timings slightly vary between the cities we offer our training courses. Please let us know of your preferred course and session (dates/venue) through email at Alternatively, you may call/WhatsApp us at +971 50 746 0956.

We understand that time zones may be different between our Senior Consultants and our delegates. Our standard online course timings (11:00 AM to 4:00 PM, GMT+4 – Dubai, UAE) may be adjusted upon confirming the programme. Our team shall communicate between the confirmed registered delegates and suggested a suitable course timing for all.

Our standard course duration for our classroom programmes is 6 hours per day while our online session is 5 hours per day.

Our training programmes are designed to be concise yet comprehensive, focusing on professional development. The duration varies based on the specific course content and objectives – we normally offer programmes between 5 – 10 days. However, our emphasis lies in delivering interactive and engaging sessions that prioritize depth of learning within a condensed timeframe. This approach ensures participants acquire substantial knowledge and skills efficiently.

We have been assessed by TUV Rheinland Middle East FZE and comply with Quality Management System standards – ISO 9001:2015 and ISO 29993:2017, ensuring a commitment to quality and excellence in our operations and services.

Our training courses span across diverse industries, encompassing sectors such as but not limited to:

  • Power & Utilities
  • Oil & Gas
  • Financial Institutions
  • Government and Regulatory bodies
  • Manufacturing & Production Industry

Our commitment lies in continuously refining and expanding our training course offerings to align with evolving industry landscapes. We encourage individuals to explore our website or engage with our dedicated support team for the latest information on available courses, ensuring access to the most pertinent and current educational resources.

Yes, Energy Training Centre is an ILM Recognised Provider (ID# 002398B), authorized to register learners and offer training courses recognized by ILM. Participants seeking ILM Recognised Certification would need to complete an assessment post the ILM Recognised courses. ILM is a renowned provider of leadership and management qualifications, part of the City and Guilds Group. Additionally, our company is a CPD Certified Training Company, ensuring our commitment to continuous professional development standards.